UK Polling Report

There is only one GB poll so far today – ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian, their penultimate of the campaign. Voting intentions are almost identical to their poll for the Sun on Sunday yesterday, with topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so will have been largely before the terrorist attack in London Bridge. Full tabs are here.
Survation will have a telephone poll out later tonight (probably midnight judging by past weeks’ timings) for Good Morning Britain, delayed for a day because of the terrorist attack. Other than that I expect most companies will now be looking towards their final call polls tomorrow, Wednesday or (if MORI stick their usual timetable) Thursday morning.

16 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%”

  1. So Conservatives holding steady in mid 40’s I am expecting then to end up on about 48 with Labour on 31% since Tory’s always do better than predicted and labour worse.
  2. Just a quick point on the YouGov model, not sure how much this has changed since it was launched, I’ve not really been checking there numbers.
    Saturday it has Torys confidence interval 38-44. Today its 39-45
    Labour was 36-42 but now dropped back to 35-41.
    Yet the torys seat share has still gone down.
    Would this mean YouGov has the tory vote share going up but losing more seats? so more tactical voting?
  3. @RJM: I think ICM are already trying to account for that with some of their adjustments (reallocating past voters, turnout targeting)
    John Curtice has tweeted a Scottish poll by TNS / Kantar. As usual with them, the fieldwork is a bit dated because they carry out interviews face to face. Basically shows the same kind of picture as the YouGov Scottish poll in mid-May.
    “New @tnsbmrb #scotland #ge17 poll. Con 28 Lab 21 LD 5 SNP 43. Fwork 10-29.5.17. No previous recent reading.”
    Answered on prev thread.
    Short Answer
    Don’t read too much into the numbers jittering around.
  5. @James
    Guardian leading article in tomorrow’s edition urging Labour voters to vote SNP tactically to keep the Tories out in Scotland.
    On those recent polling figures you published, I would think that’s a very sensible strategy if you’ve got your eye on the bigger, UK wide picture.
  6. Well one thing is for sure.
    Some of the polling companies are going to very happy.
    Some of the others are not.
  7. What would that Scottish poll mean seat-wise?
  8. Lots been said about the different turnout weightings. I’ve been doing some research and the average of the eve of election polls has always overstated Labour’s VI by around 3% points. The only election where this was NOT true was 2010, where it was pretty spot on. The average of the eve of election polls tends to get the Cons spot on (apart from 2015 where it underestimated the Cons by 3%).
    So my theory is that with all the changes in guessing turnout the average of all of the eve of election polls will be pretty much spot on, but if you have a hunch Labour is still being overstated knock 3% off that average (which is, incidentally where ICM are so they maybe the closest).
    In NO election since 1997 has the average of the eve of election polls understated Labour’s actual VI.
  9. Tories 11% ahead? I don’t believe it! That’s great news. I expect the Lib Dems to gain loads of seats. This clearly shows Labour in the ascendancy. Theresa May can finally relax etc. etc.
    It’s getting to the point where the entire concept of polling is pointless when so many companies can do fieldwork so close together and yet come out with wildly differing predictions.
    I expect another massively public autopsy after the results on Friday.
  10. Adrian The pollsters have already taken this into account and may have overstated their weightings. With ICM the Con lead would only be around 4%. Having taken into consideration Labour overstatement such as ylunger voters not turning up at the polling stations the Con lead is stretched to 11%
  11. Billythefish. I concur.
  12. Steady, no movement
  13. Update on the Banksy “offer” (BBC):
    “An offer of a free Banksy print to people who vote against the Conservatives on 8 June is being investigated by police.
    Avon and Somerset Police have received a number of complaints over the secretive street artist’s offer. Applicants from six Bristol constituencies have to send him a ballot paper photo showing a vote against the Tories to get the print.
    A disclaimer states the print was “a souvenir piece” which was not in any way intended to influence voters but was for “amusement purposes only”.
    But police said anyone taking part in the offer could be prosecuted.”
  14. @Thomas:
    On UNS, that would give SNP 48, Con 8, LD 2, Lab 1.
  15. So the unweighted numbers put Labour slightly ahead, but the weightings bring the Tories a whole 11 points ahead? Is that credible? What assumptions are ICM making re: youth turnout relative to GE2015?
  16. @billythefish
    “I expect another massively public autopsy after the results on friday”
    Well, not that public. I expect a proportion of the public will be looking at the actual result with mixed feelings of elation or revulsion depending on their leaning. The rest of the public will just get on with their lives completely indifferent to the whole affair. The polls will largely be forgotten apart from people like us on here.
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